Smarter Financial Forecasting with AI: How We Use FB Prophet for Charity Planning

At Greentech Apps Foundation (GTAF), we’ve always aimed to use technology to amplify our impact—whether that’s through building Islamic apps or running our charity operations efficiently. One area we’ve recently upgraded is financial forecasting—a critical component for any non-profit.

From Guesswork to Intelligence

Previously, our budgeting and forecasting efforts relied on basic percentage-based increases and decreases:
“Let’s assume donations will go up 10% next Ramadan,”
or
“Let’s trim expenses by 5% in Q4.”

While this method was quick, it lacked depth. It didn’t account for seasonal trends, campaign variability, or real-world fluctuations in revenue and costs.

That’s where AI stepped in.

Introducing FB Prophet: Forecasting with Confidence

Now, we’ve integrated Facebook Prophet, an open-source forecasting algorithm, into our financial planning workflow. Built specifically for business forecasting tasks, Prophet handles seasonality, holidays, and missing data remarkably well—making it ideal for non-profits like ours with event-based donation spikes (e.g., Ramadan, Dhul Hijjah).

We use Prophet to generate:

• Annual forecasts
• Half-yearly projections
• Scenario models (Best Case, Baseline, Worst Case)

This provides data-driven guidance on how to allocate resources, plan campaigns, or respond to budget variances.

Streamlined Data from Xero to AI

The process is refreshingly smooth:

1. Export data from our accounting software (Xero)
   → A simple CSV file with monthly money-in and money-out.
2. Feed data into our AI forecasting pipeline
   → The notebook uses Prophet to generate interactive charts and projections.
3. Set scenarios and re-run predictions
   → Want to know what happens if donations dip 20% next year? We can simulate that instantly.

Why This Matters

• 🎯 Improved decision-making: Data-backed insights let us prioritise campaigns and staffing confidently.
• 📈 Target setting: We set ambitious but realistic fundraising goals based on real trends—not guesses.
• 💡 Course correction: If revenue or expenses deviate from forecasts, we catch it early and adjust.
• 🕒 Time savings: What once took days of spreadsheet modelling can now be done in hours.

See It in Action

Every six months, we run this forecasting pipeline to prepare for major planning sessions. It’s helped us:

• Understand when to launch campaigns
• Know when to hold back on spending
• Get a clearer view of our cash runway

Want to Integrate AI Into Your Financial Workflow?

If you’re a charity or non-profit struggling with manual forecasting, or if you’re interested in using AI to make your financial planning more accurate and less time-consuming, we’d love to help.

👉 Reach out at gtaf.org/contact

Let’s build smarter, more sustainable organisations—together.